Super Bowl or bust for the Bears? They're crossing the Rubicon — and there's no turning back

Three things I think I know about the 6-2 Bears, who, after a 34-17 win in Seattle, just might be the most buzzed-about team in the NFL:

1. They’ve crossed the Rubicon: The fun of last year’s ascent to a division title and the playoffs is far behind them. Concerns about Caleb Williams’ health and the fleeting charm of winning a couple of games with backup quarterbacks are long gone, too. Now that linchpin defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons is aboard, the Bears no longer face doubts about the readiness of their roster to take on even the mightiest of foes.

The die is cast, in other words.

It’s Super Bowl or bust now. And even if that’s slightly overstating matters eight games into a second straight encouraging season, it’s close enough to the Bears’ truth that there’s no turning back.

When the Bears lost to the Rams in overtime in last season’s divisional round, the disappointment fans felt was subsumed by a prevailing mix of enthusiasm and pride. That sentiment has hardened since — especially over the last three weeks — into something far more urgent. Last year’s team went as far as it had any business going, requiring near-miracles to get there. These Bears, fierce enough to rag-doll the defending-champion Seahawks on enemy turf, are in the mix to win all the marbles and the entire football world can see it.

But that also means falling short from here will be met with disappointment and worse. There won’t be such a soft spot for the Bears if they back into the playoffs as a wild card, say, or if they lose another playoff game at Soldier Field. Yes, that’s jumping far ahead, but isn’t that how our expectations have shifted?

In a sense, the fun and games are over. Caesar has mounted his steed and unsheathed his sword. Alea iacta est.

2. They’ll be in first place by Thanksgiving: As long as I’m being pretentious enough to invoke Latin — look, it was one of the only phrases I know — I might as well lay out what’s going to happen over the next couple of weeks for you.

The Bears will beat the Buccaneers and Saints to get to 8-2. The Vikings will lose to the Bills and Packers to drop to 6-3. The Packers will split with the Patriots and Vikings and be 6-4. And the Lions will beat the Dolphins and Patriots and be 7-2 when the first-place Bears come calling on Thanksgiving Day.

I’d give you the Bears-Lions final score now, but why spoil the surprise?

3. Their best stat — by far — is 51-19: That represents the cartoonish gap between third-down conversions by the Bears’ offense (51) and third-down conversions allowed by their defense (19). Can a discrepancy that great be maintained? Probably not. But as long as they even come close to approximating that kind of success on third downs, they should live in the “W” column. So far, it’s this season’s version of the 2025 team’s uncanny success in the turnover department.

Caleb-o-meter: 9 out of 10

In three games since returning from a hamstring injury, Williams has completed 73.8% of his passes for 860 yards and four touchdowns, with no interceptions. Passer ratings above 100 are his current norm, unthinkable by previous Bears QB standards. If it means anything to you, he’s up to No. 2 in NFL.com’s weekly QB rankings, behind only the Bills’ Josh Allen.

Williams might have a future in this business, just saying.

Look who’s coming: the Buccaneers

Said Williams in Seattle, “We are a smashmouth football team. That’s our identity.”

That will be tested Sunday night at Soldier Field by the Bucs, who have supplanted the Bears at No. 1 in the NFL in rushing (168.6 yards per game) and are No. 1 in rushing differential (88.6 yards). The Bears are second in both categories.

The Bucs are 3-5 but lately have been unstoppable on the ground, with 582 rushing yards — including a franchise-record 324 Sunday in a win against the Falcons — the last two weeks. Bucky Irving is fourth in the league with 728 yards, and Kenneth Gainwell leads the league in yards after contact (with Irving two spots behind him).

Right or wrong, the Bucs are touting themselves as a playoff-caliber team, pointing to the combined winning percentages of their first eight opponents (.590) and their remaining nine (.433, including the Bears). They’re the only team in the weak NFC South with a positive points differential (plus-27).

Wild prediction: Quarterback Baker Mayfield will have even more success throwing the ball against the Bears than he did in the 16-0 shutout of the Falcons. Under buckets of rain, he attempted all of three passes, completing none.

History department

With three catches Sunday, Colston Loveland will pass Greg Olsen for the second-most receptions by a Bears tight end in his first two seasons. Loveland — with 20 grabs and 28 targets since Williams’ return — is up to 91, having long since justified the Bears’ drafting him at No. 10 overall. Easily in range this season is Mike Ditka’s Bears record of 114 receptions in 1961 and 1962.